A Win and a Loss

Traders, we ended the week’s trading with a win and a loss during the sessions today. Instead of focusing on the win, we’ll examine the loss.

Trading Outlook Heading into London:

Reasons for Consideration:

Again USDCAD suggests a temporary bottom may have been formed, and that an eye on new recent highs beyond the .03s may be in the cards. Of course we have some levels to get through before then. Here is a look at a 15M chart to get a feel for the levels we’ll be watching.

The following chart showcases the trade we took, and that’s about all there is to say about it.

USDCAD Trade Fails:

A nice week of trading. No runners really, but overall pretty technical. Take a look at our colleague’s Signal Service Testing page if you haven’t seen it. Pretty darn impressive.

Have a great weekend!

EURUSD Bottles

Traders, we’ve been sitting on this EURUSD pair for a bit, and really haven’t talked too much about it. Sometimes Forex trading is simply a study in patience.

And since today has been quiet for us (two nice fades off the M15 at both opens) we’re going to dissect this one a bit.

EURUSD Daily Suggests Bottling:

Those of you experienced in the markets know that price has bottled here due to the market’s inability to price in these very historic fundamentals.

We will look to this pair again previous to London after the Asian session has had its effort to move it out of this very volatile triangle.

In other news our automated signal provider colleague is into the 80s!

USDCAD Continues to Run

Traders, we headed into London with the understanding that this tight range in the EURUSD has to break, and that trading Forex in these conditions is essentially a challenge due to one simple fact: this range is going to break, and when it does, it may be violent. Here’s that Premium post:

Reasons for Consideration:

With the EURUSD stuck in this triangle, we simply play the markets tight and watch this narrowing range. It’s all we can do.

Our USDCAD trail remains, but it doesn’t look too healthy.

Reasons for Concern:

Breakouts of these narrowing ranges can be snappy. Many times false breakouts take place. These are challenging to trade.

That said, for the London session and into the NY open we basically tried our hand at two fades (one worked, one didn’t) and managed our USDCAD trade, which continues to make up proud.

Week Comes to Slow End

Traders, we’ve been watching these levels hold on these very strange ranges. EURUSD is in a 500 pip range in what has to be the most fundamentally volatile month since 2008. We’re still trying to gauge market direction, and for that reason we’ve been very cautious.

Trading Forex is not just about breakouts and fibs, it has plenty to do with understanding the overall market conditions, and these conditions suggest a storm is brewing.

Below is the write up we offered in Premium. You’ll see (if you look at a live chart) that the markets behaved at that 8860 level.

Reasons for Consideration:

The markets are at a bit of a loss at the moment. With the fundamentals unclear, German stocks fell considerably today. No other real reason. Equity markets can’t find stability, and we look to the EURGBP to see if the two majors in Europe can help us figure it out.

Highlighted are two areas where the market offered pretty severely. If we go beyond that level we should quickly get to the level beyond.

Reasons for Concern:

The EURUSD is behaving oddly, and for that reason we approach the rest of the week with caution.

Ranges Stay Tight

The FX markets (majors) remain in tight ranges. We started off the week searching out trend, but we really didn’t expect much to come off a Monday. As we prepare for the second day of the week, we realize that this long summer is nearing its close, and that the markets will have to find direction before long.

Trading Forex successfully is about understanding intermarket analysis.

News of a bank merger in Greece strengthened the risk rally, and we approach this Tuesday open in London realizing that the worst may be behind Greek banks (for the time being), and that money may flow back into these markets in a rush.

Premiums will note the nice response we’ve had off the 6434 level.